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Violence

How Free Should Speech Be?

January 15, 2019 by admin

Aaron Amat/Shutterstock.com

With police arresting 2,500 Londoners over the past 5 years for sending electronic communications that cause “annoyance, inconvenience or needless anxiety”, is free speech dead in the Western world? Are we entering into an age of authoritarian censorship? Is Europe fast becoming China?

Censorship and political correctness is not yet as bad in the West as it is in totalitarian China… according to some YouTubers, in certain respects, it’s already worse. As we condemn the Chinese for censoring the internet with their Great Firewall, the U.K. government has raised its own “Great British Firewall” to “protect” us from material that might turn us into terrorists… “terrorist” content like… studies linking vaccines with autism???? (If you’re in the U.K., go to this web page, click on the link in the second line of the second paragraph that says “study” and see what you get). So, to what extent is it O.K. to censor communication? It seems that whenever a government organization is given the power to censor dangerous communication, mission creep will always end with it censoring all information that influences public opinion in ways that politicians don’t like.

(It is not my intention promote any particular position on vaccination, merely to support the right of citizens to read about it without government interference.)

Perhaps there is some truth in John F Kennedy’s warning:

“And there is a very grave danger that an announced need for increased security will be seized upon by those anxious to expand its meaning to the very limits of official censorship and concealment”

Without clear red lines that limit government censorship – we in the democratic west will lose everything. Every hard won right past generations struggled for centuries to secure could be lost in a few short decades. Once free speech goes, due process will follow shortly. Once due process goes, absolute tyranny will follow irrespective of any laws on paper.

In this post I will try to identify what aspects of free speech should be ring-fenced at all costs and without compromise. The issue of speech and communication is, unfortunately, a lot more tangled and complex than at first meets the eye, but hopefully people of all political inclinations will see some sense in a few proposals here – or at least acquire food for further discussion.

I will divide speech into 8 sub-classes:

  • Communication between consenting adults
  • Harassment
  • Sharing personal information
  • Communication at organized events and on private property
  • Communication in the Workplace
  • Libel and copyright infringement
  • Misinformation resulting in injury
  • Communication to organize activities that violate the law

 

Communication Between Consenting Adults

 

The free flow of information is as necessary for justice as the free flow of blood is for health or the free flow of money is for prosperity. At the very least, the right of consenting adults to privately exchange information and opinions with each other (unless they are actually plotting to directly violate the law in a tangible way) should be absolute and sacrosanct. Consensual communication should be immune from legal proceedings that relate to causing offence – since participants can avoid offence through withdrawing consent – including disorganized informal expressions of hatred (but not necessarily incitements to violence, property damage, theft or other illegal activities), so long as potentially offensive expressions are not directed at parties who do not wish to see them against their will. Ultimately, most published material is consensual and non-directed whether a book, a film or a blog. Posters in public spaces, billboards in the front of shops, or handing out leaflets to strangers on the street would not automatically qualify as consensual communication.

Even in the case of consensual communication (especially mass-publication), there is still the matter of violating someone’s privacy by publishing someone’s name, date of birth, home address, bank details, or other sensitive information. As well as libel or copyright infringement (discussed later).

 

Harassment

 

One of the most important distinctions between speech that should be immune from the law (or almost immune) and speech that may (though not necessarily) entail a legal responsibility is the distinction between consensual and non-consensual communication. We need to draw a clear line between communication and harassment. No one has the right to demand the time and attention of another human being (even worker-employer relationships are initiated with a job application by the worker), in fact a non-consensual, uncompensated demand on the attention of a stranger is not so very different from making a demand on their labour – a kind of slavery. Harassment is continuing to communicate, follow or man-handle someone after they explicitly tell you they wish to be left alone. In most cases, harassed private individuals should have legal recourse against their harassers.

There are exceptions where harassment may serve the public interest. Reporters might follow people who have acted unethically to publicly shame them. Perhaps a bank manager who gave out dodgy loans, a rogue trader who messed up the houses of clients by doing a shoddy job, a restaurant owner that added rats to people’s food, a CEO, whose company dumped toxic chemicals into drinking water and gave resident health problems, or a politician who embezzled public money. While most disputes where the party who has harmed the other does not wish to engage with them are best dealt with in court, the right of the press to confront some individuals that would rather not be confronted in order to serve the public interest is an important safeguard in a world where justice is imperfect,  judges can be bribed, and courts corrupted. I do, however, reject the notion that just being a celebrity – and nothing else – confers the public, or the press, with some kind of “right to harass”. Although, unfortunately, this seems to be the de facto norm today.

I think people have some right to verbally confront those who bad-mouth them behind their backs, or have damaged them in some malignant or negligent way – so long as a formal minimum level of good-manners is maintained during such confrontations. If you want the right not to be contacted by someone, don’t talk about them.

The other exception is debt collectors or anyone else with whom you have voluntarily entered into a contractual agreement that has not been honoured. Such people also have the right to harass (within limits).

Shouting hate-filled abuse in someone’s face against their will is not freedom of expression. It is harassment. If we make this clear distinction, and give members of the public confidence that the law will protect them from such disturbing experiences, then it should be possible to ring-fence the important elements of free speech and expression from legal censorship.

In addition to talking to someone who doesn’t want to talk to you, other forms of personally directed communication such as phone, snail mail or email, and private messages of all kinds in which the recipient has clearly expressed a desire not to receive them, should not qualify as protected forms of free expression. Neither should material handed to people in leaflets or large billboards in public space (not to say that such activities should be forbidden, but merely that they are more accountable for publicized content than more consensual media). Repeatedly using the @ sign in twitter after the account owner asks you to stop is a grey area. However, other than this, non-directed tweets and other social media messaging to followers who can unfriend or unfollow you at their leisure should count as protected consensual forms of free expression.

Reaching out to strangers from time to time is an important part of business and life. The key issue is when someone has made it clear they do not want to be communicated to either directly informing the communicator in question or by broadcasting a general message such as: No Unsolicited Mail.

But what about someone yelling in public space? There are certain ways of interacting with strangers for the first time that will obviously be distressing. I think the answer here is to collectivise public disorder, whether it be someone who wanders around shouting offensive things a strangers or hands out offensive leaflets. If numerous people complain to the police, the policemen should have the power to speak on behalf of the public and tell the person causing the disorder that members of the public have collectively withdrawn their consent to such an unsolicited form of communication. The police should only have the power to press charges if, after giving the warning, the person in question continues to approach and offend strangers. There should also be and expiry date (perhaps a week) after which said person can resume talking to the public until he is warned again – and so on. The expiry date is important, as people’s ability to approach strangers to initiate contact should be reasonably protected. (Harassment mostly only occurs after someone explicitly says: “Leave me alone.”)

Answering a question is never harassment. If you ask someone a question, then you implicitly permit them to answer it in any way that they want.

 

Sharing Personal Information

 

Gossiping is a part of life. If all gossip was forbidden, life would suck. Nevertheless, some private information classes have zero gossip value and, if shared, could expose individuals to physical or financial harm. Such obviously sensitive information is physical location and financial information. To physically assault someone, you first need to know their whereabouts, so publicizing someone’s whereabouts can expose them to harm. The same applies to financial information, or passwords and usernames in general. Email addresses are a grey area. While it is probably best to show discretion, cc-ing people onto small lists (of, say, less than 10) is often an appropriate form of introduction. Nevertheless, if someone explicitly tells you not to share their email address with others, this must be respected. As lists get larger, it becomes increasingly important not to communicate with those on the list in a way that they have not consented to.

 

Communicating At Organized Events and on Private Property

 

If someone walks away from you and you needlessly pester them and get in their face – that’s harassment. But what if many people simultaneously attend an event that they feel they will get value from, and other participants spoil their experience? They may not like what you say, while remaining in the event for other reasons.

Interactive events, question and answers sessions, clubs, conferences, and organizations in general, are a fundamental component of civil society with great importance and value. A place where different people can meet and discuss things with others, where introductions and, perhaps even new friendships, can be made, yet whenever lots of people get together, there will always be the danger of agro. Some participants may take great offence at what others say or do. And if both opponents wish to remain in the venue, or meeting place, things might get nasty.

One solution is to give the organizer total sovereign power to exclude anyone they want from any event they are organising. While such dictatorial power may appear to introduce an inequality between organizer and participant, everyone is free to organize their own events. An event’s size is simply determined by the number of participants who decide to attend. Organizers of large events want people to attend and if they unfairly exclude people, participation levels will drop precipitously. The greatest punishment participants can dole out to an event organizer is to walk out in large numbers. So while giving dictatorial exclusion powers to organizers may seem unjust – competition between different organizations will keep such dictatorial powers in check.

It is worth mentioning that repeated, deliberate physical contact, against the will of the person being contacted at an event, is not the same as speaking to someone against their will and can count as harassment – irrespective of any position taken by the event organizer. Organizers have a responsibility to take reasonable measures to ensure the physical safety of participants.

Beyond that, I would like to add two details: the person who pays for a space (either by owning or renting it) takes precedence over the organizer if they are different people. Say, for example, a group regularly meets in a café, and the person organizing the meeting excludes one attendee, but that attendee remains in the café. If the café owner says they can stay, that decision should supersede that of the meeting organizer. Social networks, where users build up long term value (such as connections to friends or followers), should have complete discretion in setting the policies they adopt. However, once they commit to a policy, they must not exclude members in a manner that violates their own policy. The terms of service should be as binding on the writer of a contract as they are on the readers.

Moderators of comments have a similar level of discretion over which comments they publish.

In a similar way, what if some performer at a venue offends an audience who attended to see someone else? While members of the audience may complain to the venue organizer and while the venue organizer may, at their discretion, exclude the performer, this decision is the sole discretion of the venue organizer. The venue which the organizer creates, can be viewed as a consensual form of communication that participants can choose to accept or reject in totality. Although if attendants bought tickets there might be some cases where they could claim their money back due to false advertising.

There is a case for punishing organizers that consciously oversee venues that systematically incite participants to engage in violence, theft or any other illegal activities. Though, as with the press and harassment, on occasions inciting the public to break the law may serve the public interest (such as if the law is unfair or immoral). Laws against incitement should only apply to physical events and not digital publications, as physically attended events have a greater effect in swaying people’s minds and initiating mob activity.

There are probably some other modifications to the extent that event organizers should be given dictatorial exclusion powers, but this post is long enough as it is.

 

Besides events, there is private property. If you are on someone else’s property, whether residential or commercial (such as a shop), then the owner of that property has the right to communicate with you while you are on their property. Furthermore, the owner can delegate the right to communicate to anyone they wish (such as a shop assistant or security guard who does not own the shop). Broadly speaking, the same principle applies to places of work. The owner of a workplace has the right to communicate with employees who work there, even against their will, so long as they remain on the premises (which they have a right to leave) and to delegate that right to others.

Needless to say, the owners or renters of private property also have the right to expel whoever they want.

This also applies to digital space. Email providers have a right to send emails to accounts that are registered with them (even against the will of users), the same applies to the right of Facebook, Twitter or LinkedIn to send messages to the users of their service through their internal messaging systems (even against the will of users). However, unlike physical venues, digital service providers should not get dictatorial powers to allow other users to send unwelcome messages to each other.

 

Communication In The Workplace

 

The workplace is a special kind of venue, as employees often cannot leave without great financial sacrifice. As such, giving “the venue organizer” (i.e. the boss) total unregulated dictatorial powers of exclusion won’t work, as it is often much harder to find a new job than join a new club. And so competition between workplaces will have less of a moderating influence since the labour market is currently a buyer’s market (hopefully The Countryside Living Allowance  could change that).

On the one hand, sweeping anti-harassment laws would make workplaces totally dysfunctional, toxic environments. If you have agreed to work at a job for money, that implies agreeing to interact with your colleagues professionally. Balancing the law to protect employees from workplace bullying while enabling frank and effective communication, and a workplace environment where people don’t feel they’re in constant danger of getting sued, is a delicate matter which a single blog post cannot disentangle.

 

Libel and Copyright Infringement

 

There is a serious danger that creeping copyright infringement and libel laws could kill free speech and democracy through the death of a thousand cuts. People’s ability to complain, when they – or others – have been abused, swindled or when their neighbourhoods and the planet get damaged, is essential for justice and democracy. Yet this necessarily involves accusing other people of causing harm and damage. Laws that allow individuals to sue for libel and defamation threaten our ability to shine the light on injustices that cause damage and suffering.

The problem with complex laws, that are open to interpretation, is those with money to hire good lawyers usually win. Furthermore, even if complex laws protect someone’s ability accuse someone else, many victims, who do not understand the legal system, may still be intimidated into self-censorship for fear of libel and anti-defamation lawsuits. Without affordable legal advice, they cannot know if they are protected.

Similar problems lurk behind copyright laws. The ability to criticise and quote the works of others is essential to informed political debate. If someone writes a book, makes a film, or has an interview, where false or misleading statements are made, it is important that others can criticise their quotes and set the record straight. Yet if they are not allowed to quote them, for fear of infringing their copyright, this will be impossible. Many documentaries, which draw attention to a range of important human rights and environmental issues, often need footage from a wide variety of sources. Overzealous copyright laws could stifle these works.

We live in an age where everyone and everything is surveilled all the time. There are vast archives of data…but who owns them? If only a tiny subsection of society owns the copyright to most of it, they will have a monopoly privilege to slice and dice it into narratives and propaganda of their choosing to convince anyone of anything while those without copyright may not be able to critique it without getting sued for infringement.

Fair Use legislation is there to defend against this, but it is quite ambiguous and the penalties for falling on the wrong side of it are severe: $30,000 per infringement. It is critical that people become fully aware of the ramifications for justice and democracy if we let Fair Use get chipped away.

This is the problem: Most people go about their daily lives not worrying about copyright. Most don’t consider copyright law or anti-defamation law when they vote in elections. Yet if these laws creep in the wrong direction, they could provide an ideal backdoor route to restrict free speech.

…and yet…

Should someone’s business be ruined because someone else tells a lie (or even reveals an embarrassing truth) about them?

It is right that someone should profit from another’s work without paying the creator a penny?

When it comes to defamation, the issue is complex.

But one way to stop copyright from smothering documentary makers and other creators of compilations would be to only let infringed parties sue for a portion of the profits of works that quotes substantial portions of their creation and to set a floor that guarantees that those who incorporate portions of other people’s work into their work receive at least 50% of their compilation’s  profits. The sum total of aggregate royalties to all parties that sue for copyright infringement in a compilation should never exceed 50% of the net profits derived from the compilation. $30,000 fines for statutory infringement in compilations should be eliminated completely – the danger of destroying freedom of speech, expression and the use of quotes and other source material in informed debate far outweighs the danger of not compensating creators for the value of their creation.

 

The general public needs to pay a lot more attention to legal creep in these critical areas of law before it smothers their free speech entirely. The big problem with “leaving it to the experts” is that rich people and corporations are usually the ones paying experts to lobby to modify these areas of law in ways often at odds with public interest.

 

Misinformation Resulting in Injury

 

While spreading lies and misinformation may not be generically illegal, on occasions when it causes damage to life and property, the legal consequences can be severe. Perjury is a crime that relates to lies in court and the punishment is years behind bars. Beyond that, there is a grey area between giving out damaging financial advice and confidence trickery. Certainly, someone who falsely poses as financial adviser and misrepresents the risk of an investment can face lawsuits from investors who’ve lost millions from the advice, along with fines and imprisonment. Someone whose misinformation on health issues results in a loss of life can face consequence of similar or greater severity.

This all may seem very reasonable, yet sometimes punishing people for spreading damaging misinformation can be problematic. A big issue is health advice. When standard medicine has a tried and trusted cure for an ailment with minimal side effects, going with the treatment prescribed by your GP is a no-brainer. However, for many health conditions, such as cancer, standard treatments are not 100% effective, and even if you follow your GP’s advice you could still die. Many chronic health conditions require continual doses of medicines that are expensive, have dangerous side effects, and reduce people’s quality of life. In cases where the standard treatment for an ailment is unsatisfactory, it is understandable that some people will search the internet for better solutions either in addition to, or in place of, prescribed treatments.

The internet health scene spans the full spectrum from charlatan snake oil salesmen who charge big up front money for non-cures to simple, incredibly helpful, cheap, life changing advice, to terrible advice that is downright dangerous. It is understandable that some people would want to shut it down to protect public health.

…and yet there’s a problem with this…

Existing medicine is strongly biased towards researching new chemical compounds with curative properties as opposed to exploring new (previously unknown) curative properties possessed by existing compounds. This is not the most effective use of resources and has everything to do with patent law. The existing compounds cannot be patented, so systematic research into new curative properties of existing chemical compounds is not, for the most part, profitable.

Yet the long term side effects of injesting compounds that can be found in the food section of the supermarket are far better known than the long term effects of injesting a newly discovered chemical compound. At the very least, chemicals contained in regularly eaten foodstuffs have stood the test of time and have been eaten by billions. Conversely, control trials of new chemical compounds are conducted over shorter periods on smaller groups. These can screen for short-term side effects, but can miss potentially damaging side effects of long term dosage on small, vulnerable portions of the population.

 

You can find hundreds of household cures on the internet. Coconut oil for skin rashes and earaches, garlic for flu, someone even testified that he has successfully used a vibrator to cure a chronic case of haemorrhoids!!! Many of these cures have not been systematically tested in large expensive control trials, principally because they cannot be patented. All we can go on is hearsay and personal stories.

Health bloggers have to be careful about what they say. Even if a given remedy really does have beneficial health effects if it isn’t “authorized” by the medical status quo, due to a lack of evidence from control trials, (which is often due to an absence of control trials due to lack of funding) then if someone tries the remedy and suffers as a result, there could be a danger the health blogger might be held accountable.

In all high-stakes fields (engineering, medicine, mental health) there is a severe bias towards the status quo. Conformity becomes a protective umbrella. It is inevitable that from time to time, people will die, but if you follow the best practice standards in your field and someone dies, then you are not legally accountable. However, once you move away from those standards, you enter a world of personal liability. One might argue that this protects people, but the reverse can also be true. If procedure A is accepted as best practice and kills 10% of patients, and procedure B is not accepted as best practice but only kills 5% of patients, then not following best practice could actually save people. Yet, paradoxically, the physician who follows best practice is legally immune from the consequences of the 10% of his patients that die while the physician that did not follow best practice could be held personally accountable for the 5% of his patients that died – and might be imprisoned for negligence as a result.

Thus, while best practice can prevent standards from slipping it is also a huge obstacle to improvement and deters all but the least risk averse physicians from seeking better treatments to save lives.

We should research new curative properties of existing compounds, such as foods and cosmetics, more systematically, but until more funding for such research is made available, reading about home remedies on the internet might be the best we can do. It is always good to first talk to a GP about a medical problem (which is pretty much what every medical website says to cover their arse). Nevertheless, if the remedy a GP prescribes is not fully effective, people must have the right to seek better remedies (if they so wish) on the internet at their own risk. While others must have the right to give advice, so long as they do not misrepresent their qualifications.

And laws that protect people from damaging misinformation must not expand to the point that they suppress information of uncertain helpfulness. Just because it is uncertain whether something is helpful doesn’t imply it necessarily isn’t.

 

Communication to Organize Activities That Violate the Law

 

Attempts to break the law are illegal even if they fail. And communicating to organize others to break a law can be considered part of an attempt. The key thing is to distinguish between an “attempt” and a “fantasy”, evidence such as the level of detail in the communication (such as serious information gathering and analysis), and the physical activities that accompany it, contribute to distinguishing serious attempts from idle fantasies. But there can be no doubt that, in some cases, communication could be the lion’s share of evidence to confirm that an attempt to break the law was serious. So this is a further class of criminal communication.

 

Final Remarks

 

It is understandable why all forms of censorship concern us. You can only censor others if you are more powerful than they. If you have less power than another, you cannot sensor them however much you might want to, so the ultimate decision about what to censor and what not to censor will always rest in the hands of the most powerful actor (be they a person or an institution). Free communication and the innate power of uncontrolled gossip have historically been deployed to curb the shamelessness and impunity of society’s more powerful members and to limit the abuses they can get away with.

And yet, from the above considerations it seems that we cannot ringfence the absolute freedom of every conceivable form of communication. Some forms of communication can do great damage to others and it seems morally necessary to sometimes regulate them (fraud at the very least). Whenever we say: “I believe in absolute freedom of expression” it must always be qualified by something like “excepted in cases of fraud, copyright infringement, perjury and reputation damage caused by libel.”

But can these exceptions be contained within an impregnable bubble, or will a creep in legislative interpretation enable those in power to incrementally warp and expand the sphere of acceptable censorship to the point of acquiring the de facto ability to censor anything they want?

 

John

 

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John

Filed Under: Philosophy Tagged With: Censor, Censorship, Communication, Dictatorship, Free, Free Speech, Harassment, Human Rights, Information, John McCone, Libertarian, Message, offensive, Philosophy, Prohibition, Regulations, right, section 127, Sharing, Social Media, Speech, Violence

Arms Races At The Speed Of Light

August 3, 2018 by admin

Flexible Manufacturing and Weapons Technology in The Information Age

 

Arms Races article written by John McCone
leolintang/Shutterstock.com

Dual-use weapons are as old as mankind, you can bale hay with a pitchfork or plunge it into someone’s chest, a base-ball bat can hit a home run or smash open a skull; everything from bicycle chains to chainsaws and, most recently, cars can be used to injure – and even kill – other human beings. People will always have access to the tools of death. Freedom to use a wide range of tools in a variety of activities necessarily enables individuals, with sinister inclinations, to abuse that freedom and kill others. We can only punish them after the fact.

But what if a dual-use tool could enable an average person to kill thousands, perhaps millions, of people in a short space of time? What if the benefits of this technology were so great that countries which banned it would plunge into recession?

 

Does such a technology exist?

 

Yes. It’s called flexible manufacturing and its future implications are as terrifying as they are unavoidable, with clear solutions all but non-existent.

3-D printing – the general term for manufacturing processes that can convert a digital file into any arbitrary 3 dimensional shape – is the poster child for flexible manufacturing. A rudimentary 3D printer costs a few hundred pounds while big brands, like Makerbot, might cost a few thousand. Although off-the-self 3D printers can make arbitrary shapes, the variety of materials they can use is limited. However, commercial 3D printers work with many more materials and can print aircraft and even spacecraft components! Some 3D printers can even build most of the components that are required to replicate and even upgrade themselves.

Skeptics of 3D printing technology point out that it is still often more expensive than other manufacturing techniques and that 3D printed parts are often lower quality compared to other methods…

…but 3D printing is only the most dramatic example of a general, inexorable trend for all types of manufacturing systems to become cheaper, smaller and more flexible. CNC machines can also manufacture a vast array of components of all shapes and sizes through simply downloading a file with the right information in the right format. And the cost of a rudimentary CNC machine is also £200 or so – about the same as a 3D printer.

On a factory level, 3D printers, CNC machines and other automated processes can be integrated into flexible manufacturing systems  that can rapidly switch between producing completely different products simply by inputting new instructions.

The economic case for flexible manufacturing systems, that can rapidly respond to changes in consumer demand without expensive retooling, is compelling, and, as time goes by, these systems will inevitably become ever cheaper, ever smaller, and ever more flexible.

A universal manufacturing system is the logical conclusion of this trend. A set of automated tools and robots in a small space that could manufacture anything – surgical instruments, lawn mowers, aircrafts, guns, cars, robots, computers, mobile phones, bio-weapon laboratories, tables, chairs, cosmetics, androids, cutlery – and arbitrarily switch from making one product to making another in less than a minute.

Once this technology matures, and becomes affordable to everyone, then everyone will have the capability to manufacture sophisticated, lethal military-grade weapons platforms from the comfort of their own homes.

 

Flexible Manufacturing and The International Balance of Power

 

Automation is not just about job loss. It is also enables extremely rapid shifts in the coordinated behaviour of artificial actors and manufactured goods.

 

A side effect being the distinction between the ability to produce weapons and the ability to produce economic goods of all kinds – will disappear.

In general, it takes a year or two to fully mobilize a military for large scale war. Conscripted civilians must be trained as soldiers, factories must reorganize their workforce to build armaments, dedicated armament factories must be built. And only after manufacturing state of the art weaponry, can you properly train soldiers how to use it.

Once every country on Earth has universal (or highly flexible) manufacturing systems, the switch to a war footing will take minutes. Automated weapons platforms will emerge from factories with optimized battle-software that can overcome and destroy an enemy with maximum efficiency – no training, or generals, required. Any country with universal manufacturing capability and up to date design and battle software – even ones without any military at all – will rapidly be able to create the most formidable military on Earth.

Diplomatic relations between countries depend, among other things, on the implicit knowledge of how total war would pan out – especially for the loser. A nation that anticipates defeat will likely back down as disputes with stronger nations escalate. However, if both nations mistakenly believe they could easily defeat the other, the escalation towards total war is far more likely. World War 1 is what happens when combatants grossly underestimated the cost and duration of conflict and, consequently, make little diplomatic effort to avoid it.

 

Furthermore:

Increasingly flexible manufacturing systems, and automated military units, will eliminate the barrier, and lag time, from the acquisition of a blueprint to deploying the actual weapon in battle.

 

Let us assume, for the sake of argument, that in the 19th century Brazil acquires the plans for a state-of-the-art British warship. Without the U.K.’s shipyards, a knowledge of how to build them or skilled workers to man them, merely possessing a warship’s blueprint is a far cry from building it. The Brazilian state would have to invest huge amounts of money and resources to attract people from England with the right skills and know-how, train its native population to build and work in the shipyard, acquire the right grade of steal etc., etc.,. This would take decades of concerted effort. Even once Brazilian shipyards were producing British warships, a crew would still have to be trained, British naval tactics studied, etc., etc., before the military capability of a Brazilian navy even approached that of the British. And by the time Brazil got its warships in the water, British warships would be even more advanced.

 

Imitation has always been cheaper than innovation. But, in the past, successful imitation still required a lot of effort. As the pace of globalization has increased, the speed of imitation has also increased – as the meteoric rise of China demonstrates. But in the future, the time required to acquire all the technological advantages (including military technology) possessed by a competitor will approach zero.

 

Technology is information. The time it takes to copy information varies with format:

  • Digital information – Instantaneous
  • Technical information (skills, knowledge) – several years
  • Organizational information (interaction between workers in an organization) – years.

 

Skills must be learnt by human beings over several years. Skills have two components: reading and experience. Stealing books and reports from a competitor can certainly accelerate the training of one’s workforce, but the workforce of the imitator must still learn through trial and error. The same applies to organizational information, a company may have reports that define corporate policy and protocol, but there will always be an unspoken, implicit corporate culture overlaid on top which a competing rival can only develop through trial and error.

 

Automated systems store everything in a digital, instantly transferable format. When the designs of weapons (in the form of software instructions to a universal manufacturing system), the behaviour of weapon’s systems, and the protocols coordinating how different weapons platforms interact with each other as part of a coherent battle strategy, are all stored in digital format, then a single hack by an opponent could neutralize a technological military advantage that cost trillions to develop within hours.

 

For example, if, in a future where universal manufacturing systems are everywhere, the Syrian government hacked all the information possessed by the U.S. military and U.S. weapons companies. Then, within hours, Syria could put their universal manufacturing systems to work making fully-automated U.S. weapons platforms and become the military equal of America in less than a day! A technological military edge that cost trillions to develop could be lost to a team of hackers working for a small government on a budget of less than ten million pounds.

 

Arguably, high-level encryption could be deployed that may cost 100s of billions for a competitor to break through…

 

The problem is that if country A is a large superpower who has invested trillions into developing state-of-the-art automated military software and has heavily encrypted it to make it very hard to hack, country B is a rival superpower who has invested trillions into decrypting and hacking into country A’s military secrets, then if little nations C, D, E, F, G, H, I, J and K can get a copy of country B’s decryption software, they could potentially access all of country A’s military secrets for a fraction of the price that superpower B spent to initially develop the decryption software.

 

So military technology will become very leaky in the coming information age.

 

In this sense, Vladimir Putin’s comment that “the nation that leads in AI will be the ruler of the world”, is not accurate as that leader will likely get hacked, and lose all its hard won advantage to competitors in an instant.

Instead of one “AI superpower”, hundreds of independent sovereign nations, many ruled by shady dictators locked in regional power struggles with their neighbours, will all rapidly gain access to state-of-the-art technologically advanced, fully automated battle systems.

 

This is a recipe for global chaos.

 

The Criteria for Victory

 

The desirable design features of an automated weapons system fall into four categories:

  • Victory
  • Security
  • Safety
  • Cost

 

All categories involve trade-offs. A human in the loop may increase safety, but may also increase system response time and get defeated by a rival system. Robot swarms communicating with heavily encrypted messages, that can’t be intercepted, might exchange information at a slower rate than swarms with lighter encryption, enabling the lightly encrypted swarm to outmanoeuvre the heavily encrypted swarm. Similarly, a weapons platform that can only be built by a military-grade manufacturing system will churn out less units than one that can be mass-produced by generic civilian manufacturing systems. A weapons system that never attacks friendly units, or never launches an unprovoked strike against a neighbouring country might also be slow to fire at an attacker and get destroyed by it… and so on and so forth.

So designing a fully automated weapons system that achieves victory against all opponents while simultaneously being safe, secure and cost effective is anything but straightforward.

Nations can subjectively decide to focus on designing a safe AI weapon’s system but cannot ensure it achieves victory in battle.

 

On the whole, I think it’s likely that…

 

…the most dangerous developments in military AI will come from the weakest actors…

 

A powerful nation, confident of victory, will likely invest a lot of money into safe and secure AI weapons systems. A poorer country, on the verge of being invaded by a far more powerful foe, will throw everything into designing AI systems with maximum destructive capability, irrespective of safety and security, in order to prevail in a battle.

The U.S. deputy defence secretary, Robert O. Work tells us “there will always be a man in the loop”, but what if the U.S. decided to invade Iran with drone armies and the Iranians found they could achieve victory over America by taking the man out of the loop? Clearly such desperate, rushed measures taken by the losing side of a war could progressively increase the danger of AI military technology.

For example, what if an opponent hacks, reverse engineers and decrypts a rival nation’s battle software and swarming strategies in a degraded and incomplete form? What if their software designers do a rushed job to fill in the gap? Such imperfect, rushed attempts to replicate rival battle systems could produce weapons systems that are simultaneously highly lethal, highly uncontrollable and highly unsafe. Such rushed cyber-espionage jobs might even produce lethal weapons systems that spontaneously attack peaceful neighbouring countries by accident!

 

Weapons Proliferation to Non-State Actors

 

Imagine a simple battery-powered drone quadcopter, no larger than a dinner plate, with a dagger attached. Imagine this system is equipped with machine vision and manoeuvring software and is programmed to seek out human jugular veins, ram into them and then back out. Imagine it can achieve a kill rate, under favourably crowded conditions, of one person every 40 seconds. Imagine a swarm of 10,000 of these drones, can operate in a coherent manner like sheepdogs and corral and surround masses of terrified people before going in for the kill. Imagine these “flying daggers” massacring the residents of one city after another.

This would be an example of how sophisticated and lethal software could transform basic hardware into weapons of mass destruction. If we assume that a futuristic 3D printer which cost £500 could produce these drones a £3 a pop, then ten people chipping in £3,000 each could manufacture a swarm of 10,000 drones, download appropriate battle-ware into the drone swarm from the dark web, and kill whole cities filled with millions of people.

 

But surely states will keep their battle-ware safely encrypted?

While state battle-ware encryption may be too secure for non-state actor to design codes to penetrate, rival states will hire large teams of hackers to decrypt this battle-ware. These sophisticated decryption software packages will likely leak into the wider web. At this point, cults, companies, terrorists, mercenaries, drug gangs and small time hackers will all be able to access powerful decryption tools and obtain the designs of sophisticated weapons platforms as well as the software to control them.

At this point, everyone will have free-access to some of the most sophisticated weapons systems out there. How will the police cope?

 

Unfortunately, there are no easy solutions.

 

For example, a blanket international ban on flexible manufacturing for personal use, would be impossible to implement. How do you distinguish “personal use” from use by a small business? Any group of terrorists dedicated enough to want to destroy whole cities would also be willing to set up a small business. Or perhaps you could force all manufacturers to apply for a government-issued permit for every file they download onto a 3D printer, or manufacturing system, but what about people who design their own CAD files? Would they need to apply for a permit every time they manufactured something from a CAD file that they designed? If so rapid-prototyping would become a lot less rapid – and if not, then what’s to stop someone downloading something off the internet while claiming that they designed it themselves? The other issue is that flexible manufacturing is a sliding scale with no clear boundary. So all manufacturing would need to be heavily regulated with a hellish degree of red-tape. But this would make countries that don’t regulate flexible manufacturing vastly more wealthy, while the economy and quality of life in countries that did would diminish.

Cody Wilson’s 3D printed gun is the very small tip of a very large iceberg. If anything, he has done humanity a service by raising awareness of this critical issue early on before the shit REALLY hits the fan.

 

John

 

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Filed Under: Technology Tagged With: 3D Printer, Arms Race, Arms Races, Automation, Existential Risk, Flexible Weapons, Violence

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